This section provides our current and past vintages of forecasts. We always provide current and past forecasts based on the methodology used at the displayed date. In this way past and current forecasts can be compared across time.
If you want to download our forecasts we ask you for your email address. This will be used to understand who is inte- rested in our forecasts. We promise not to give any of these emails to third parties and will only use them in emergencies, i.e. if we find dramatic errors in the data.
If you use the data used please cite as:
1) Mueller, Hannes, Christopher Rauh (2022) The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention, Journal of the European Economic Association, volumne 20(6), pp. 2440–2467, https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac025.
2) Mueller, Hannes, Christopher Rauh, and Ben Seimon (2024) Introducing a global dataset on conflict forecasts and news topics. Data & Policy, volume 6, https://doi.org/10.1017/dap.2024.10.
The Data & Policy article has a detailed description of variable names and system performance metrics.
It is possible to extract the data directly from our open and free of charge API.
Update October 2024: attention, file names have changed. Notice the new filename convention. You need to adjust your API call if you have downloaded previously.
This endpoint provides the latest files uploaded, with the public URL's to retrieve the files in csv format. This endpoint will retrieve the publicUrl of the following files:
GETcurl -X 'GET' 'http://api.backendless.com/C177D0DC-B3D5-818C-FF1E-1CC11BC69600/C5F2917E-C2F6-4F7D-9063-69555274134E/services/fileService/get-latest-file-listing' -H 'accept: application/json'https://api.backendless.com/C177D0DC-B3D5-818C-FF1E-1CC11BC69600/C5F2917E-C2F6-4F7D-9063-69555274134E/services/fileService/get-latest-file-listingNone
None
An array of objects, where the "publicUrl" property is the url to retrieve the csv file.
[
{
"size": "number",
"name": "string",
"publicUrl": "string",
"updatedOn": "number",
"createdOn": "number",
"url": "string"
}
]This endpoint provides all the directories from the beggining of the project. Each directory holds a data set, being updated every month.
GETcurl -X 'GET' 'http://api.backendless.com/C177D0DC-B3D5-818C-FF1E-1CC11BC69600/C5F2917E-C2F6-4F7D-9063-69555274134E/services/fileService/get-all-directories' -H 'accept: application/json'https://api.backendless.com/C177D0DC-B3D5-818C-FF1E-1CC11BC69600/C5F2917E-C2F6-4F7D-9063-69555274134E/services/fileService/get-all-directoriesNone
None
An array of objects, where the "publicUrl" property is the url to retrieve all the data of this particular date.
[
{
"name": "string",
"publicUrl": "string",
"updatedOn": "number",
"createdOn": "number",
"url": "string"
}
]This endpoint provides the latest files uploaded, with the public URL's to retrieve the files in csc format.
GETcurl -X 'GET' 'http://api.backendless.com/C177D0DC-B3D5-818C-FF1E-1CC11BC69600/C5F2917E-C2F6-4F7D-9063-69555274134E/services/fileService/get-file-listing?date=01-2022' -H 'accept: application/json'https://api.backendless.com/C177D0DC-B3D5-818C-FF1E-1CC11BC69600/C5F2917E-C2F6-4F7D-9063-69555274134E/services/fileService/get-file-listing?date=01-2022Where:
| Argument | Description |
|---|---|
date | Date of the directory to retrieve the data set. In format MM-YYYY or "latest" to retrieve the latest files. Example: 01-2022 |
None
None
An array of objects, where the "publicUrl" property is the url to retrieve the csv file.
[
{
"size": "number",
"name": "string",
"publicUrl": "string",
"updatedOn": "number",
"createdOn": "number",
"url": "string"
}
]